US LNG, Gas Trends Up, Coal to Stay Flat
US LNG exports unsurprisingly quadrupled in 2017, according to data from the government's Energy Information Agency (EIA). It also said last week that US gas production year on year grew for the eighth consecutive month in January, and projected that US coal demand will remain static out to 2050.
US LNG exports reached 1.94bn ft3/d (roughly 14.5mn mt/yr) in 2017, up from 0.5bn ft3/d in 2016. Shipments in 2017 went to 25 countries. EIA detailed that 53% of those went to three countries: Mexico, South Korea, and China – of which Mexico received the largest share (20%). Japan was the fourth largest US market, while three countries in southern Europe and three more in the Middle East were noteworthy importers.
All LNG exports from the US in 2016-17 came from Sabine Pass, Louisiana. However, four more US export projects are due online in the next two years: Elba Island LNG and Cameron LNG in 2018, then Freeport LNG and Corpus Christi LNG (both Texas) in 2019. By end-2019 US LNG export capacity is expected to reach 9.6bn ft3/d. EIA's March 27 note is available here.
EIA noted March 30 that US dry natural gas production rose year-on-year for the eighth consecutive month in January 2018, reaching 2,400bn ft3 that month (or 77.4 bn ft3/d) – so 9.6% higher than the January 2017 level of 70.6bn ft3/d. Indeed the average daily rate of dry gas production this January was the highest monthly since EIA began tracking monthly dry production in 1973.
US estimated gas demand in January 2018 was 3,317bn ft3 (107bn ft3/d) or 14.4% higher than the January 2017 level and the highest for any month since 2001. EIA's Natural Gas Monthly reports can be accessed here.
In a further note, EIA has projected that US coal disposition — domestic demand and coal exports — will "remain relatively flat through 2050", citing its Annual Energy Outlook 2018. It forecasts also that coal’s share of total US electricity generation will decline from 31% in 2017 to 22% in 2050, as natural gas and renewable generation sources increase their generation shares. Natural gas remained the most-used fuel in US electricity generation for the third consecutive year in 2017.