2020: a Good Nine Months for Upstream

Exploration activity has been resilient this year, with over 8bn barrels of oil equivalent (boe) found in the first nine months. Norwegian consultancy Rystad expects the total for the year to reach "around 10bn boe," it said November 16.

About 3.75bn boe, or 46% of total discovered volumes, are gas and the rest liquids. Yet-uncounted resources in finds like Sakarya in Turkey's sector of the Black Sea point to additional upside, meaning that 2020 will avoid returning to the multi-decade low seen in 2016 at just 7.7bn boe.

The 73 new discoveries announced this year (through October) are evenly split between land and sea with 36 onshore and 37 offshore. But the finds offshore were bigger on average. Russia leads in terms of discovery volume, with 1.51bn boe, while Suriname comes second with 1.39bn boe and the UAE follows third with 1.1bn boe.

Offshore discoveries accounted for slightly over three-quarters of discovered resources, and a third was found in ultra-deep waters, 38% in deepwater areas and 29% in shallow waters. The third quarter was the weakest with about 2bn boe of new finds, compared to about 2.7bn boe during each of the first two quarters.

“Global oil and gas operators will chase plenty of additional volumes in wildcats planned for the final two months of the 2020, although some may not be completed until early 2021 and will therefore add to next year’s tally. We believe discovered volumes are likely to settle at around 10bn boe,” said Rystad.