US gas production, LNG exports to increase: EIA
The US government on July 7 forecast a modest increase in dry natural gas production from last year, while LNG exports are on pace to pass piped deliveries for the first time.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for July, said the average production rate for the year would be 1.3% higher than 2020 levels if forecasts prove accurate.
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The estimate for 92.6bn ft3/dat this year is an upward revision from an early-year forecast of 91.1bn ft3/day, suggesting US gas producers have recovered ground lost from the cold weather that idled production in the US south in February.
Gas production next year is expected to average 94.7bn ft3/day, slightly higher than previous expectations.
For LNG exports, EIA expects an average of 9.6bn ft3/d this year, climbing to 10.2bn ft3/day next year. If its estimates prove correct, this will be the first time that LNG exports surpass pipeline exports for both years. An estimate from May was for 9.2bn ft3/day for both this year and 2022.
Demand strains at the height of the pandemic last year pushed LNG exports to 6.5bn ft3/day.
Even though LNG exports are outpacing piped gas, the EIA expects natural gas exports via pipeline to also increase as more capacity comes online and demand increases, particularly in Mexico.
Total piped exports to Mexico and Canada should combine to average 9bn ft3/day this year and reach 9.2bn ft3/day in 2022.
On imports, and despite the increase in domestic gas production, EIA said gas imports, mostly from Canada, will jump 5.7% from 2020 levels, but that trend will reverse in 2022.