Bloomberg: Ukraine Risk Premium Fades for EU Gas on High Inventories

The biggest natural gas inventories in Europe since at least 2010 are deflating the risk premium stemming from the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, sending prices for supplies during the winter to a four-year low.

The winter contract in the U.K., the biggest European market, would drop 6.9 percent if the Ukraine crisis ended, according to the median of seven traders, brokers and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg July 3-7. Gas for the six months from October rose 6.5 percent on March 3, the first trading day after Russian President Vladimir Putin got approval to send troops into Ukraine, which carries about 15 percent of Europe’s needs.

Russia cut gas supplies to Ukraine on June 16 after OAO Gazprom and NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy failed to agree on a price for future deliveries and on debt payments, echoing similar disputes that saw supplies to Europe reduced during freezing weather in 2006 and 2009. High European inventory levels mean capacity is limited this year and demand upside is “minimal,” Citigroup Inc. analysts including Seth Kleinman said in a July 7 report.
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