UK Reserves Good for 20 Years, More if Matured: OGA
UK petroleum reserves remain significant and should sustain production for 20 years at least, and more if additional undeveloped resources can be matured, according to the upstream regulator Oil & Gas Authority (OGA).
Its report 'UK Oil and Gas: Reserves and Resources' published October 31 says that 43.5bn barrels of oil equivalent (boe) have been produced to date.
Moreover it estimates that remaining recoverable reserves and resources range between 10bn to 20bn boe.
OGA estimates that, of those, UK reserves are some 5.7bn boe (probable) at end-2016 and these alone, based on current production forecasts -- and not taking into account potential future exploration successes -- can sustain production for at least the next two decades.
There is a significant opportunity to add to these reserves by maturing the UK’s considerable contingent resources, it adds, estimating there are 7.4bn boe of proved undeveloped resources at end-2016. This however would need "substantial investment" in new field developments.
Replacement of proven and probable reserves remains a concern, it adds: in 2016 about 600mn boe were produced, but only 80mn boe of contingent resources were matured to reserves; exploration success in 2016 helped add 210mn boe to the contingent resources.
The OGA’s current estimate of prospective (undiscovered) resources is 6bn boe, within a range from 1.9bn boe to 9.2bn boe.
Taking account of this range of possibilities for prospective resources, together with the range of discovered reserves and contingent resources shown in the report, the current best (central case) estimate of remaining recoverable UK offshore hydrocarbon resources is in the range 10bn to 20bn boe.
Of its 5.7bn boe reserves figure, OGA estimates that 1.8bn boe is gas. Of the 7.4bn boe contingent resources, OGA puts the gas share at 2.5bn boe. The graphic below details the distribution of those 4.3bn boe gas reserves and resources; please note that units in the graphic are given in bn ft3.
OGA graphic showing the distribution of gas reserves/resources at end-2016 (Graphic credit: UK's OGA)
The report also includes new info on UK contingent resource levels in producing fields, collected for the first time from oil and gas operators in 2016.
OGA’s operations director Gunther Newcombe said: “The UKCS is a world class petroleum province with 10 to 20bn boe of remaining discovered and undiscovered potential. The OGA has an important role in helping to steward this resource base, revitalise exploration and maximise economic recovery, working closely with industry and government. Future success of the basin requires attracting additional investment, implementing technology and company collaboration on new and existing developments.”
Mark Smedley