UK Gas Grid Operator Relaxed about Winter Supply
Gas and power grid operator National Grid said that Britain “benefits from diverse and flexible sources of gas supply” and it is “confident that this range of supply sources will be sufficient to meet demand this winter.” This is despite the reduction in gas available from the giant Rough storage facility and from the Dutch Groningen field, it said in its annual Winter Outlook report, which this year was published October 14.
Additional security comes from the gas demand side response mechanism which went live October 1. “This new mechanism will act as a route to market for large gas consumers, allowing them to bid to reduce the amount of gas they use during times of system stress in exchange for a payment,” it said.
It said total gas demand for the winter is forecast at 49.1bn m³, with a peak demand forecast for a 1-in-20 winter of 472mn m³/d. The maximum potential non-storage supply for winter 2016/17 is 473mn m³/d. When combined with a maximum storage deliverability of 129mn m³/d, this results in a total maximum supply potential of 602mn m³/d.
The gas control room, National Grid
(Credit: National Grid)
It expects gas to be cheaper than coal for power generation but from “November onwards the price difference narrows which may increase competition between the two fuel types for the remainder of winter.”
Based on seasonal normal conditions, gas demand for winter 2016/17 is expected to be lower than last year’s weather corrected demand, when the UK exported gas in the mild winter. Ireland's Corrib gas field is now capable of flowing at full capacity and so is expected to reduce Irish demand for GB exports.
Centrica confirms that its 8bn m3/yr import contract from Dutch GasTerra expires at the end of December 2016. The company has sufficient alternative supplies of UK and imported gas, including contractual volumes from Qatargas, and a ten-year 5bn m3/yr supply from Statoil that began October 2015.
William Powell