IEA’s net-zero vision is not a specific forecast: Gibson
Pathways to a net-zero future outlined by the International Energy Agency (IEA) should not be viewed as gospel, shipbroker Gibson said in a weekly report filed October 22.
The IEA in its world energy outlook for 2021 outlined various scenarios for a net-zero emissions future. If there are no changes in current global policy, oil demand by 2050 remains above 100 million barrels/day, but would only be around 24mn b/d by then if “the world single-mindedly pursues a 1.5 °C stabilisation objective.”
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The IEA outlined three separate visions; an Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) that assumes various national climate commitments are upheld, a Stated Policies Scenarios (STEPS) that relies on measures governments actually have in place, and a Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050 case that sets out a pathway to reach net-zero CO2 emissions globally by the mid-century.
Gibson in its report said these scenarios should be viewed as hypotheticals rather than scripture.
“The IEA’s latest energy outlook should not be viewed as a specific forecast but rather as a set of possible pathways of how the energy markets could evolve in decades to come,” its report read.
Of the three scenarios, meanwhile, Gibson said the STEPS case was the “closest to current reality,” but even that outlook ignores things like advancement of electric vehicles and supporting infrastructure in developing economies.
For a net-zero future, the IEA added that declines in oil and gas demand are “sufficiently steep that no new field developments are required.”
That, however, does not mean that limiting investments in new oil and gas fields will necessarily accelerate the energy transition. Instead, a “strong policy” push is needed to achieve “deep reductions” in global emissions, the IEA stated.