Interview: Public Perception of Shale Gas Extraction in the UK

In a moment shale gas and the 14th licensing round are in the spotlight in the United Kingdom, Natural Gas Europe had the pleasure to speak with Sarah O'Hara, co-author of the report Public Perception of Shale Gas Extraction in the UK, funded by the University of Nottingham. We spoke about the trends in public perception and the factors likely to influence developments in the coming months. Will the current government's push on shale gas speed developments up, or will it trigger further public opposition? That is what the industry and local communities are trying to figure out. The Professor at the School of Geography of the University of Nottingham helped us shedding some light on this burning topic. 

What is your understanding of the major trends in public perception? What have been the major drivers of these changes?

What we have seen over the two and a half years since we started the University of Nottingham shale gas survey is that there was a period of time when it looked as if the UK public was warming to shale gas. Basically, people seemed to be getting less concerned about whether extracting shale gas was harmful to the environment with an increasing number of people believing shale gas to be a clean and cheap form of energy. What we have seen since the protests at Balcombe  is a very significant shift in the way people thinks about shale gas - a greater percentage of our respondents  believe that it causes water contamination, a greater percentage saying that they do not think that this is a clear form of energy. We have also seen people, who had previously regarded it as a potential cheap energy, beginning to pull back on that and questioning it. So, overall, what we are finding is that having warmed significantly to shale over a large part of 2012 and through to mid -2013, there has been a large reverse in what people say. So, now, we are at the lowest we have ever been throughout the survey in terms of the number of people in favour of shale gas.

In your report released on Monday, you said that the public support for shale gas in the UK has fallen below 50% for the first time. Right?

It is not only the support that has fallen below 50%. What we have also seen is that the number or the percentage of people who are saying ‘we are against shale gas extraction’ has increased. So there is a differential between the people in favour and people against it. That differential is much lower than it has ever been in the survey.

Do you expect these trends to continue?

I suspect we will see a growing sense of concern as to the impacts of shale gas. And I don’t think it necessarily helps when you have government officials or figures, for example the former Tory Energy Secretary who commented  that they would be better off extraction shale gas in the North and North-West of the country. I think that it could actually backfire.

In a sense you correlated the protests at Balcombe with an increase of people against shale gas. Do you think protests are more likely during the summer?

Yes.

So, do you think that over the summer there might be protests triggering a similar trend, a similar growing opposition in the future?

I think it will be really interesting to see if this is the case. But there have been protests at other sites, which have not been so well reported. You are not as likely to get celebrities at a  site if it's  far from London. For example, Balcombe is close to London and you are more likely to get the celebrities out. And that would attract major attentions. That said, I would not be surprise if this summer, particularly if a warm summer, we will see people more likely to protest. It will be interesting what would be the impact of the licencing round, whether it would trigger a broader set of protests against shale gas extraction.

What about the differences between regions? Which are the areas more in favour of shale gas? Do you think that there are regions of the UK in which the population is more in favour than in the rest of the country?

You tend to have small variations over the period of the survey, but it is all in the noise. In this sense, we don’t see anything in the regional data. There is no particular area that is more pro or against.

So there is not a significant difference between the regions?

No, there is not a North-South divide in the data.

But in your report you say that people identifying themselves as Labour voters are more likely to be against shale gas than Conservatives and UKIP voters. Given the classical political divide between North and South, is there not anything in the data  suggesting that the North is less prone than the South to embrace shale gas?

It's true that people that are affiliated with the Conservatives and UKIP are more likely to support shale gas exactions than people who are affiliated with the Labour and Lib Dem parties and certainly labour and Lib Dem supporters have been much less in favour of shale since Balcombe. But support for shale gas extraction by broad regions shows little variation and it has been the same since the survey started in March 2012. 

What is the role of Lib Dems in this context?

When you look at the data, you see the Tories and the UKIP pretty much mirroring each other, the Lib Dems slightly above Labour. And then you have got the Green Party whose supported are elastin favour of shale gas extraction - around 20% compared to 65-70% for the conservatives.

Do you expect any political backfire because of drilling activities in the UK?

If you look at what the main parties are saying, they are generally supportive of shale gas’ extraction. So it would be interesting to see what is the impact of the current government’s push on shale gas

In shale gas conferences, we often hear that quite a few experts don’t know much about the economic and environmental consequences of shale gas. So, how can the public have a balanced opinion? What are the reasons for their endorsements or their resistances?

When you work in the shale gas world and you get involved, you think the whole world should know about shale gas. There is quite a lot in the newspapers, there has been some coverage on the televisions. But actually if you go out and talk to people, they are not sure whether shale gas is good for the environment or bad for the environment.

But there are also many experts saying that they don’t know whether it is good for the environment or it is bad for the environment. 

I think that there are some studies that are fairly robust; they have a scientific basis. These have been published, and we will see increasing levels of research. However, there is still not a place where a person who is interested in shale gas can find out, in a fairly jargon-free way, about the shale gas, what the impacts of its extraction are, what the cost-benefits of its extraction and use for example.  People are relying on newspapers and the television. These are not providing the public with deep insights into whether there are things we have to be concerned about or whether there might be some benefits.  There is not a space for people to participate in the debate in a way that they feel that they are engaging in the decision making process and where their concerns are hears and listened to.

Sergio Matalucci