Renewables generate a third of Australian electricity in Q1 2024: Maguire
By Gavin Maguire
LITTLETON, Colorado, April 25 (Reuters) - Renewable energy sources generated over a third of Australia's utility-supplied electricity during the first quarter of 2024, a record share for solar and wind farms during the first quarter of the year and Australia's peak summer demand period.
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Solar farms generated 13.11 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity during the first quarter of 2024, up 13.5% from the same period in 2023, data from energy think tank Ember shows.
Wind power generated 7.53 TWh of electricity, up 6.5% from the same quarter a year ago, lifting total output from renewable sources to 20.64 TWh during the quarter, and the highest first-quarter total on record.
The solar and wind production totals were the second highest ever on a quarterly basis after the final quarter of 2023, and indicate that Australia's build-out of utility-scale clean energy generation capacity is having a deep impact on the country's generation mix.
FOSSIL FUELLED
Up until the end of 2020, Australia relied on fossil fuels to generate 75% of its electricity, while renewable energy sources accounted for less than 20% of utility-generated electricity supplies.
Coal remains the primary source of the country's electricity, accounting for around 55% of total electricity generation so far this year.
But coal's share of the generation mix is down sharply from more than 70% in 2020 due to strong societal and policy support for reducing use of fossil fuels for power generation.
This in turn has spurred a rapid expansion in renewable generation capacity, both at the utility level and behind-the-meter in households and small businesses.
Rooftop solar installations across Australia have surged in recent years, with an estimated 3 million households deploying some form of solar generation, producing roughly 11.2% of the country's electricity in 2023 according to the Australian Clean Energy Council.
Around 2.9 GW of rooftop capacity was estimated to have been added in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency, but delays to grid connection and declining incentives for new customers have led to a slowdown in the pace of new additions, which are expected to decline to 2.5 GW in 2024 and 2 GW in 2025.
At the utility level, Australian solar electricity generation has grown by roughly 90% from 2020 to 2023, and wind power output has grown by roughly 40%.
These growth rates compare to a 12% decline in coal-fired generation and a 23% drop in gas-fired output over the same period, and reveal a significant swing in power sources within utility generation systems.
Large swings in generation capacity have also changed Australia's power production landscape.
Between 2018 and 2022, renewable generation capacity jumped from less than 20 gigawatts (GW) to more than 40 GW, or by 128%, Ember data shows.
In contrast, fossil fuel generation capacity expanded by only 5.6% from 51 GW to 53.8 GW.
This has resulted in the share of clean power capacity within Australia's utility generation system growing from 34% in 2018 to 48% by 2023, and likely around 50% by the end of 2023 once official capacity data for last year is released.
GROWTH PATH
Analysts project continued rapid growth in renewable power capacity in Australia over the coming decades, which should mean that clean sources supply a majority of the country's utility-generated electricity by the end of this decade.
Solar power looks set to remain a major driver of clean electricity growth, with utility-scale generation capacity set to climb from around 22 GW by the end of this year to 80 GW or more by 2029, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO.)
But that surge in solar capacity looks set to be dwarfed by potential expansion in stored energy capacity over the same period. Stored energy sites include batteries and pumped hydro dams, and can store renewable energy during peak output periods and dispatch it later to consumers during demand peaks.
Total utility stored energy capacity could grow from 1.6 GW in 2024 to just over 22 GW by 2030, AEMO data shows. Utility-scale wind power capacity is also set to grow sharply.
If all these projected expansions unfold as planned, Australia's electricity generation mix will become overwhelmingly powered by clean energy sources.
In turn, that could result in the country transforming from a relative clean power laggard at the start of the current decade, into a potential clean energy leader by the 2030's.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.