Poland: New Shale Gas Estimates in 2014

New estimates of shale gas reserves in Poland are expected to be published in early 2014 reports Polish media, quoting the director of the Polish Geological Institute.

Jerzy Nawrocki commented that in order to prepare a report, the Institute needed at least one complete data obtained from a horizontal well. This well has to be at least one kilometer long and undergo a full hydraulic fracturing treatment.

The director noted that Polish state-controlled gas company PGNiG is currently working on hydraulic fracturing in a horizontal well in Lubocino, Pomorze, (not without problems, as we reported earlier this week).

Credible and up-to-date estimates of recoverable shale gas reserves in Poland still remain to be published.

The PGI released its first report on estimated shale reserves in March 2012. The report, prepared in cooperation with experts from the United States. Geological Institute (USGS), calculated that the most probable volume of recoverable gas fitted into the range of 346 bcm to 768 bcm, with the maximum level of 1.9 tcm.

These numbers are less than several earlier estimates, notably contradicting 5.3 tcm figure, estimated by the Energy Information Agency in 2011.

Commenting the report to Natural Gas Europe, some experts, including the Head Geologist Piotr Wozniak, were stressing that probes used for calculations made by PGI/USGS were collected in the years 1950s to 1992.

In December 2012 the Environment Ministry announced that a new summary report on shale gas deposits in Poland would be released, when the number of exploratory wells reached 100.

The available information indicates that credible estimates of Poland’s shale gas reserves should not be expected before 2014 at the earliest.