Nord Stream: A View from Poland
Vedomosti: “ Russia will be able to cut off Poland or Slovakia, for political purposes, at the same time maintaining deliveries to the third countries.”
While heads of heads of government and other attendees at Tuesday’s ceremony to commemorate the launch of the Nord Stream Pipeline feted the project as enhancing Europe’s energy security, a very different point of view was being expressed in other nations; that of worry of the growing interdependence between Russia and Europe in the energy sector.
EU members Poland and the Baltic states have long voiced fears over the project, which bypasses their territory, arguing they will be on their own when bargaining with Russia for their own gas supplies.
According to former US president national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, both the Nord Stream and South Stream are designed to “separate Central Europe from Western Europe insofar as dependence on Russian energy is concerned.”
From 1939 to 2011
Nord Stream company board chairman and the former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said on Tuesday: “All the commotion has been calmed down now". He answered this way to the question of the Phoenix TV reporter about the famous comparison made by Radoslaw Sikorski.
In 2006 Sikorski, then defence, and now foreign minister of Poland, compared the project to the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact, signed by Nazis and the Soviets in 1939 to draw a line of division in the Central Europe. Today, the government and press reactions in Warsaw are calm. The tone is moderate. Poland has surrendered to the reality.
By running the pipeline along the Baltic seabed, Russian will avoid the significant transits fees levied on its gas transported via Ukraine, Poland and Belarus.
Despite Russia assurances that objective of this project is purely commercial, experts note, that Poland, Ukraine as well as Baltic States, still see the Nord Stream more as a strategic undertaking.
Poland is very heavily dependent on Russian gas, and the small Baltic countries import all of gas supplies from their huge eastern neighbor.
All countries of the region have repeatedly expressed concern about the Russian ‘energy weapon’ and a potential use of the Baltic pipeline as a tool of Russian gas-leveraged domination.
If you can’t beat them join them
Speaking to the Natural Gas Europe several experts recognize the project as a major defeat for the foreign policy of Warsaw. Some emphasize, that Poland, as a potential regional leader, haven’t also lived up to its Central European neighbor’s expectations.
MEP Bogdan Marcinkiewicz says that respective Polish governments haven’t been able to create consistent policy concerning transit of Russian gas to the Western Europe. “In my opinion, Poland finds itself in this position, also because our governments did not work hard enough for doubling the Yamal-Europe pipeline”.
Witold Michalowski of the Polish Pipeline Journal “Rurociagi” claims, that Poland should have simply tried to join the Nord Stream project.
No enthusiasm
Merkel, Medvedev, Oettinger and Warnig, all of the speakers in Lubmin underlined the European character of the Baltic pipeline, but among the 500 guests who gathered in the small town on the Germany Ostsee coast there wasn’t a single representative of the Polish government.
One of the most prominent advisors of president Bronislaw Komorowski agrees, that Poland cannot share Russo-German enthusiasm. However, Tomasz Nalecz stresses, that Poland is the European Union member and “the pipeline terminates on EU soil”. “After all, the pipeline does not connect two enemies of our country”
The majority of Poles treat the new pipeline with deep distrust. “They have cut off gas so many times, why should we believe they won’t do it again?” – comments like this dominate discussion on the Internet.
Sobieski Institute expert Tomasz Chmal calls the current situation “the worst case scenario”. “Russian supplier’s grip on transit routes and a significant number of gas contracts, means that Gazprom can control gas flows in our part of Europe,” told Chmal to Polskie Radio.
“The Nord Stream seals the division of Europe” – says Piotr Wozniak, former economy minister and current chairman of the EU energy regulation body ACER. He observes that the pipeline strengthens Gazprom monopoly position in Central part of the continent. “Together with OPAL pipeline, the Baltic connection opens way to isolating individual gas markets of Poland, the Baltics or Czech Republic”.
Pipeline of defence
The Polish government see LNG terminal in Swinoujscie, set to start in 2014, and North-South gas corridor, as ways of reducing the growing Russian influence in the region. Besides Warsaw hopes, that in the further future, shale gas can neutralize it altogether.
“Shale gas is our incredible opportunity” – says Marcinkiewicz. “We’re already building LNG. We’re going to defend ourselves”.
Related Reading from RFERL: Nord Stream Pipeline Could Be A Game-Changer for Ukraine, Belarus