More Gas to Balance More Renewables: Cedigaz

Paris-based research institute Cedigaz sees global gas demand rising at the expense of oil and coal, as it is the key transition fuel to a renewable-based, efficient and sustainable energy system.

In a press release July 11, it sees gas demand rising by 1.6%/year over 2014-2035 and says that its growth in absolute terms will outstrip that of all other energy sources.

"The strong expansion of LNG supply and the abundance of both conventional and unconventional resources will help gas to expand its role in the energy mix to the detriment of coal and oil. In a context of increased globalisation of gas markets and diversification of natural gas supply, spot pricing will be a growing component for the commercialisation of gas.

"Many countries have policies that should favour gas consumption over other hydrocarbon sources, especially in the power sector. Coal-to-gas switching contributes to a strong decline in the future growth of carbon emissions. However, this will not be enough to reach the +2°C target: emissions in the Cedigaz scenario would put the world closer to a +3°C path."

"The growth of oil and coal is expected to slow down sharply, with respective annual rates of 0.3% and 0.1%. Gas supply will diversify and will incorporate a growing share of unconventional gas, driven by North America and Asia. Inter-regional trade will account for an increasing share of global supply as import dependence grows both in Europe and Asia," said Cedigaz.

Gas will increase its relative share in the world primary energy supply from 21.2% in 2014 to 23.9% in 2035, this latter being similar to coal by then, added Cedigaz. It sees power generation remaining the largest source of global gas demand growth, and being particularly strong in the Middle East, non-OECD Asia and Africa.

The International Energy Agency is to publish Gas 2017 (previously known as the Gas Medium-Term Gas Market Report, or GMTMR) on July 13.

William Powell