Kazakhs Eye Major Gas Demand Growth by 2030
Kazakhstan is projecting a rise of 38% in its gas consumption by 2030, according to a top official.
Manas Tasybayev, general director of KazTransGas Aimak, the country’s largest gas supplier, said that about 13bn m3/yr gas is currently consumed in Kazakhstan, itself 44.5% more than in 2007. That figure would reach 18bn m3/yr by 2030 as a result of ongoing investment, he announced Sep.29.
Some 260bn tenge ($760mn at current rate) has been invested to extend gas's reach across Kazakhstan during the past decade, increasing the number with access to the gas grid from 5mn to 7mn people, but that figure could reach 12mn by 2030. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said July it is to lend €54mn to state gas grid KazTransGas Aima towards the overall €67.5mn (25bn tenge) cost of upgrading five regional gas distribution grids, although it’s unclear if that loan has yet been signed.
Kazakhstan also plans to increase gross gas output to 65bn m3/yr by 2020 and 109-110bn m3/yr by 2030, the latter 2.4 times more than the current level.
Coal covers about 55% of Kazakhstan’s current primary energy demand, followed by natural gas 22%, oil 19%, hydroelectric 3%, Kazakhstan's energy ministry said September 2016, signalling also that it means gas to replace some of the oil consumption – freeing more oil for export. Most gas consumed is currently used in heat and power plants (45%), while industry uses 26%, homes 23% and municipal utilities 6%.
Thanks to start-up of the Kashagan offshore field in the Caspian last autumn, Kazakhstan increased production of oil, condensate and gas significantly in 1H2017. Gross gas production in Kazakhstan reached 11.549bn m3 dry gas (up 15.2% year-on-year) and 14.733bn m3 associated gas (+14.5%) in 1H2017, according to the economy ministry’s statistics committee. In full year 2016, production was 21.384bn m3 and 24.945bn m3 respectively -- so a 2016 total of some 46.33bn m3).
The state does not publish sales gas production figures. However, as Kazakhstan’s sales gas output in full year 2016 was 19.9bn m3, according to the recent 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, the ministry’s gross gas figures suggest that a lot is used in oil field reinjection. Kazakhstan flared 2.67bn m3 in 2016 according to World Bank data, while its total CO2 emissions (including from coal) were 15.8 metric tons per head of the population.
Dalga Khatinoglu, Ilham Shaban