Hurriyet Daily News: Hydrocarbons and the Cyprus mediation process

United Nations-backed Cyprus negotiations have been suspended unilaterally by the Republic of Cyprus, after the Turkish seismic exploration vessel Barbaros entered the self-declared EEZ of Republic of Cyprus.

The past four decades have witnessed futile mediation attempts on the Cyprus conflict. Each time, the negotiations were halted, collapsed or failed. Now the mediators are challenged not only by convincing the sides to make concessions during the negotiations but also with the task of de-escalating the present conflict and bringing mainly the Greek Cypriots to the table.

I have two main questions in mind: 1) Why would the parties in Cyprus agree to come back to the negotiating table? 2) Which factors would lead the parties to sign an agreement in Cyprus? Each side might have different reasons but the “readiness” of the sides can assist us in explaining both processes. Then, what are the variables of readiness? I can note that the most significant one is motivation. Motivation derives from a) a sense that conflict is unwinnable b) a sense that the conflict generates unacceptable costs or risks.
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