Global CO2 to Rise 2% in 2017: Report
Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuels and industry in 2017 are expected to be about 2% higher than during 2016, according to the 2017 Global Carbon Budget report, published November 13 by the Global Carbon Project (GCP).
GCP is sponsored by Future Earth and World Climate Research Programme. The 2% figure comes with an uncertainty range of between 0.8% and 3%. It follows three years of relatively flat emissions. The announcement comes as nations meet in Bonn for the annual UN climate negotiations (COP23), and a day before the International Energy Agency releases its annual World Energy Outlook 2017 report which in previous years has commented on global and regional emissions trends.
“Global carbon dioxide emissions appear to be going up strongly once again after a three-year stable period; this is very disappointing,” said GCP lead researcher Corinne Le Quere, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia in the UK: “With global CO2 emissions from all human activities estimated at 41bn metric tons for 2017, time is running out on our ability to keep warming well below 2 ºC, let alone 1.5 ºC.”
She also pointed to this year's stronger hurricanes, higher sea levels and warmer oceans as “a window into the future” pointing to the need to “drive emissions down rapidly” to limit Climate Change impacts.
China’s emissions account for 28% of global emissions. Co-author Glen Peters, research director at Oslo climate research centre Cicero in Oslo pointed to “a return to growth in Chinese emissions, projected to grow by 3.5% in 2017 after two years with declining emissions” and noted that coal use in China may rise by 3% thanks to a mix of growing industrial output and less rainfall for hydro-power generation.
US emissions are projected to decline by 0.4%, contrasting with a decline of 1.2%/yr averaged over the previous decade, with an unexpected rise in coal consumption.
Indian emissions are projected to grow 2% in 2017, compared to a 6%/yr average over the previous decade, thanks to significant government interventions in the economy (with its GDP up 6.7%).
European emissions are tentatively expected to decline by 0.2% this year, lower than the decline of 2.2%/yr averaged over the previous decade. Separate German statistics last week estimated a small rise in Germany’s CO2 emissions this year.
Remaining countries’ emissions, representing about 40% of the global total, are expected to increase around 2.3% in 2017.
Mark Smedley