GB Gas Demand Forecast Tops 400mn m³: Update
(Updates with comment from UKOOG, Institute of Mcchanical Engineers)
National Grid as of midday raised its within-day forecast of British gas demand for March 1 to 403.4mn m³, compared with with its forecast three hours earlier of 395.8mn m3, suggesting the weather is colder than it originally forecast.
It has maintained its 'Gas Deficit Warning' for gas day March 1, issued 5.48am GMT, and is continuing to ask large industrial offtakers to curtail their gas use. In the past, it invoked cheaper interruptible transportation contracts allowing network-sensitive loads such as factories and power stations to be turned off, in order to supply priority customers such as households and schools.
However as of midday National Grid also increased its forecast of supply flows to 384.6mn m3, and its actual flows as at midday to 397.1mn m3/dboth being at least 30mn m3 higher than its 9am forecasts – suggesting the anticipated supply gap is being narrowed, perhaps as shippers responded to locational bids for gas.
In the past three hours, flows via BBL pipeline from the Netherlands into England have doubled to a healthier 25mn m3/d at 12.20pm GMT, while imports from Norway via the 1,200-km Langeled pipeline have remained strong at 75mn m3/d. However, as three hours ago, no gas is being withdrawn from the Rough storage facility in the UK North Sea.
Linepack, shale could be solutions
The Institute of Mechanical Engineers said in a March 1 comment that the UK has several options for bringing additional gas into the system, including gas terminals, LNG and biogas routes, plus linepack. Stored gas in the gas distribution system can provide up to two weeks or more in normal conditions, said the head of engineering, Jenifer Baxter.
But she downplayed the Rough effect: “It is possible that the reduction in long term storage facilities for gas in the UK may be contributing to the gas shortage by adding additional stresses to the primary storage options. However as the storage reduction has only been happening over the last few years it is too early to confirm this.”
The UK Onshore Oil & Gas lobby group said the high demand and high prices showed that the UK is "worryingly dependent on gas imports and this is forecast to increase to 80% by 2035. Given that nearly 50% of our electricity is produced by gas and 84% of our homes are heated with it, the need to ensure we have our own homegrown source of gas rather than pursuing this continued over-reliance on imports has today become very evident." It advocates shale gas production instead of imported gas.