Gazprom Forecasts 33% Growth in Gas Demand by 2040
Russia's Gazprom expects global gas demand to rise by 1.3 trillion m3 by 2040 to over 5.3 trillion m3, driven by increased demand in China, the company said on December 23.
The monopoly pipeline exporter launched supplies to China via the Power of Siberia in December last year and aims to build additional pipelines to increase its market share in the country, which is replacing coal with gas in its energy mix to tackle air pollution. Chinese demand is expected to reach 325bn m3 this year, up 6% despite the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, and growth will accelerate further, Gazprom said.
Another key trend over the period will be declining gas production in Europe, Gazprom said, creating more space for its exports. European output fell 7% in 2020 to 220bn m3 and Gazprom expects this trend to continue. The Russian firm is Europe's biggest supplier, accounting for around a third of its gas needs.
Gas has also proved relatively resistant to the Covid-19 pandemic. "According to Gazprom's preliminary estimates, the global demand for gas in 2020 fell by about 2%, while other fossil fuels are showing greater decline in consumption," it said.
The International Energy Agency estimated in its latest World Energy Outlook that European gas imports would continue growing to 346bn m3 in 2019 to 360bn m3 in 2025 and 362bn m3 in 2030, despite a contraction in demand over the period. The Paris-based agency expects imports to contract to 351bn m3 by 2040, however.