IEA Releases Petchems, Renewables Reports
Petrochemicals are set to account for more than a third of the growth in world oil demand to 2030, and nearly half the growth to 2050, adding nearly 7mn barrels of oil/day by then.
But they are also poised to consume an additional 56bn m3 of natural gas by 2030, and 83bn m3 by 2050, according to an International Energy Agency October 5 report The Future of Petrochemicals.
It says the industry's dynamism is driving new trends: after decades of decline, the US has re-emerged as a low-cost location for chemicals production, thanks to cheap feedstock from its shale gas revolution, and is now home to around 40% of the global ethane-based petrochemical production capacity. The Middle East though remains the lowest‑cost centre for many key petrochemicals.
The report is part of a new IEA series shining a light on 'blind spots' of the global energy system.
"Our economies are heavily dependent on petrochemicals, but the sector receives far less attention than it deserves," said IEA executive director Fatih Birol (see banner photo, courtesy of IEA). Products include plastics, fertilisers, packaging, clothing, digital devices, medical equipment, detergents, tyres, but also solar panels, wind turbine blades, batteries, thermal insulation and car parts.
In its separate report, Renewables 2018 published October 8, the IEA forecasts that renewable energies will continue their expansion in the next five years, covering 40% of global energy consumption growth. Their growth will be most rapid in the electricity sector, and will provide almost 30% of power demand in 2023, up from 24% in 2017.But because of weaker policy support and additional barriers to deployment, renewables use will expand far more slowly in the transport and heat sectors.
“Modern bio-energy is the overlooked giant of the renewable energy field,” said the IEA's Birol: “Its share in the world’s total renewables consumption is about 50% today, in other words as much as hydro, wind, solar and all other renewables combined." The focus on bio-energy is another part of the IEA’s analysis of 'blind spots' of the energy system. Modern bio-energy excludes traditional fuels such as unreformed wood, but includes wood pellets.