Gas prices spike in America and fall in Europe over Easter
Americas
Henry Hub prices reached a 13-year high closing at $7.8/MMBtu Monday due to a colder than normal April increasing demand in addition with some local supply constraints and the continuous high regasification levels.
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Supply output has been down for the last week in New Mexico pipelines from the Permian and in the Appalachia region, keeping markets nervous longer-term storage.
Storage levels are 18% below the 5-year average, still within the 5-year range, however unsettling for market participants.
Prices yesterday dropped to $7.2/MMbtu on the back of forecasts of warmer weather, currently at TTF levels one year ago.
Europe
Europe is testing TTF prices around EUR 93/MWh ($30/MMBtu) today after the biggest demand drop in this scenario of high tensions involving supply security.
The Easter holidays dropped prices on Thursday 14 to its lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Even with the demand drop, the market tested how low prices can reach even with the supply disruption threat looming in the background.
The next couple of weeks should indicate which buyers are willing to pay for Russian natural gas in rubles as companies face end of April payment dates.
Norwegian flows increased 2% day on day with strong flows during Easter.
On the other hand, Russian flows reduced almost 1% day on day and has been falling for the last two weeks with lower nominations from buyers and Russians not sending gas if they suspect no payment.
Sanctions
In response to potential sanctions, President Putin has said that Russia can redirect energy exports away from west.
This will take some time as the interdependence of Europe on Russian energy runs both ways.
Russia does not currently have enough infrastructure to reallocate oil and gas exports to Asia in the short term and will need to invest in order to reach new markets.
OPEC
OPEC has confirmed to the EU that they will not increase production above their existing commitment, even if global importers are likely to increase oil sanctions on Russian supply.
Asia
Asian prices keep following TTF and were negotiated at $26/MMBtu with a $3/MMBtu discount over European indexes.
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