A Gas Pipeline Across Afghanistan?
Mikhail Krutikhin: Never say never
It will probably be a Taliban territory again when the United States and allies retreat from Afghanistan in 2014. Supported by Pakistan, the Islamic fundamentalists are the only force capable of establishing some sort of law and order in the country regardless of likes and dislikes by the rest of the world.
The new regime will evidently be different from the Taliban rule as it was before the allied forces’ invasion in 2001. Apart from some changes in domestic policies, the Taliban are expected to develop cooperation with the Chinese power monger in the region. China is already investing heavily in Afghanistan’s future building roads and power lines, opening mines and encouraging local small businesses. It fits the strategy of Beijing, which has all but monopolized the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and infiltrated the economy of Central Asian nations.
The informal tripartite union of the Taliban, Pakistan and China can make a deep impact on the pattern of energy flows in the area and influence the global energy balance. The parties may have enough power to guarantee safety for important infrastructure projects.
After all, it was the Taliban regime— and not some pro-Western government— that signed an agreement in January 1998 with a US-led and US sponsored consortium to build TAPI, a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and India. The Islamists could choose between two projects: one proposed by Bridas from Argentina; and the other one, by CentGas, a pool of Unocal, Saudi Delta, Japan’s Inpex and Itochu, South Korea’s Hyundai Engineering and Construction, Pakistani Crescent Group, and even, for a short while, Gazprom.
The negotiations were halted in August 1998 when US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam were bombed under the guidance of Osama bin Laden, and the Taliban announced they supported the attacks.
Now it seems that the TAPI can be resumed under the new Taliban government and with some encouragement from China and the United States (the Americans regard this pipeline as an alternative to an Iranian project of gas supply to Pakistan and India.)
The TAPI feasibility study, financed by the Asian Development Bank and made by Penspen (UK) in 2005, is in place. Intergovernmental agreements, and even framework pas-purchase contracts, were signed in 2008-2012. It remains to form a new consortium, procure finance and start working as soon as the new Taliban are back in power. There is plenty of gas in Turkmenistan and eager consumers in Pakistan and India.
The international pipeline project seemed impossible in war-torn Afghanistan while the US military and its companions were trying to introduce democracy to this country. It has a very good chance to become doable after an anti-democratic Taliban regime returns to Kabul.
Mikhail Krutikhin
Published with the kind permission of RusEnergy. Mikhail Krutikhin is with RusEnergy, an independent privately-run company established in 2000 by a group of Russian experts with a long experience in consulting and publishing business. Based in Moscow, it specializes in monitoring, analysis and consulting on oil and gas industry of Russia, Central Asia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine.
RusEnergy is a Natural Gas Europe Media Partner