Gas is Pivotal to South African 2050 Energy Plan

South Africa says that gas should play a growing part in the country’s energy mix, but has given little insight into how such gas might be sourced.

Energy minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson and her officials told a November 22 media briefing in Cape Town that she is finally publishing a long overdue government energy strategy for public consultation, after its approval by the cabinet. 

Two documents were released: an Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) and an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).

Energy minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson (source: South African government)

The minister said that there would be supporting sector plans for electricity generation and for liquid fuels, while for gas “a draft framework which seeks to explore future possible options for the development of a gas market in South Africa is being developed.” Officials said whereas past planning has treated gas, liquid fuels and electricity discretely, now there is a need for an integrated plan.

The planning process will include a Gas Utilisation Master Plan, designed to guide future investment in gas infrastructure.

Officials referred in their presentations to possible expansion through imported natural gas and indigenous gas - shale gas, CBM, other natural gas.   However, there was no detail.

Issues to be analysed in the debate on South Africa’s future energy mix include gas price volatility, and a ‘Big Gas’ scenario, with significant development of the country’s gas market through imports and domestic shale gas.  There is also a No Shale Gas scenario, where fracking might be uneconomical or unviable.

Gas/renewables ‘to form biggest chunk of installed capacity by 2050’

A base plan scenario, which aims to cover the most likely developments until 2050, foresees additional energy being needed, with 20.385 gigawatts coming from nuclear energy, 35.292 GW from gas, 15 GW coal, plus from renewables: 37.4 GW wind power and 17.6 GW solar.

The IRP says: “With regard to energy mix; gas and renewables form the biggest chunk of installed capacity by 2050.” Of the extra gas-fired capacity, combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants would account for 21.96 GW, while simpler open cycle ones (OCGTs) would provide 13.332 GW.

The new energy strategy documents appear to suggest a delay in installing new nuclear capacity in South Africa – an issue which has stirred heated debate. However, officials insisted the nuclear build would go ahead, and a call for proposals from interested parties would be made next month.

Some 90% of South Africa's generation capacity today is coal-fired, with hydro, renewables and the Koeberg nuclear plant making up the balance. 

John Fraser, Pretoria