Energy Transition Scenarios: Impact on Natural Gas
These medium-term gas demand scenarios build on the net zero modelling work that the OIES Gas Programme commenced in early 2022. These scenarios aim to establish what the role for gas is in the most realistic scenarios and what the conditions for that would be.
The key takeaways are that, leaving aside our reference/control DPS scenario, sustained gas use in both FRAG and NZwthCCS will require huge investments in carbon management/CCS. In both of these scenarios, gas demand will peak around 2030, with the major difference thereafter being the pace of decline and the location of that decline.
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The main losses in gas demand (compared to 2022) are in OECD economies and China, while the demand difference between the two core scenarios show up in North America, Middle East, Europe and China. There is a lot to digest on price, carbon, supply and trading in these scenarios. We welcome all feedback from sponsors and other stakeholders.
Read full research by Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
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