EIA sees higher natural gas prices, LNG exports in 2025
US natural gas prices are expected to average about $3.00/mn Btu for the remainder of the 2024-2025 winter and just under that mark for all of 2025, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) says in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released December 10.
At the same time, LNG exports, which have remained flat at around 12bn ft3/day this year compared to 2023, will climb by 15% in 2025, to nearly 14bn ft3/day as new liquefaction capacity in Louisiana and Texas comes online.
Natural gas storage volumes, which began the winter heating season some 6% above the five-year average, are expected to remain relatively robust through the November-March withdrawal season, ending March at about 2% higher than average.
“Recent natural gas prices have been historically low, so a colder winter than last will draw on storage and raise prices to some extent,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said. “We expect natural gas prices will remain well below the high prices we saw in 2021 and 2022.”
The benchmark Henry Hub spot price averaged $3.91/mn Btu in 2021 and $6.42/mn Btu in 2022 before slumping to $2.54/mn Btu in 2023 and to $2.19/mn Btu for all of 2024. The EIA is projecting the spot price to average $2.95/mn Btu in 2025.
Dry natural gas production is forecast to remain flat in Q1 2025, at around 103bn ft3/day, although total production next year is expected to increase about 1% as production increases in the Permian and Eagle Ford shale regions to support growing LNG capacity on the US Gulf Coast, notably from Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG project in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 project in Texas.