China Coal-Firing to Flatten to 2040, as Mix Gets Greener: US EIA

Coal-fired electricity generation in China, the world’s largest coal consumer, is expected to remain flat through 2040, as renewables, hydro, gas and nuclear all expand, according to a US Energy Information Administration briefing note September 27.

Citing the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2017 report published mid-September, the note says that coal will still be an important component – at 4.4 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2030 – of China’s energy mix, representing 47% of Chinese electricity production that year. It compares with 72% in 2015.

However, it adds that China’s power sector coal consumption is expected to peak as soon as 2018 at 4.8 trillion kWh, noting under the government’s 13th Five-Year Plan, a total of 150 GW of new coal capacity was either cancelled or postponed until at least 2020.

EIA expects electricity generated from natural gas in China to grow by 6.5% between 2015 and 2040, with an addition of 70 GW of natural gas-fired capacity. That growth though is set to be exceeded by renewables, as well as by hydro-generation, already China’s second biggest generation source.

"By 2040, fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and petroleum) are still expected to make up most of China’s electricity generation mix," says EIA. However its graphic shows that non-carbon generation sources (nuclear, hydro, wind, solar) in 2040 could account for very nearly half China's generation mix.

The full EIA briefing note, with links to the agency’s mid-September IEO2017, with graphics is available by clicking here.

Mark Smedley